The diagram shows a circle, starting with an idea for how things could be better. That is elaborated into a vision for the change that is needed, which impacts how we are socially, and the technologies we have.
The change has an effect on a small scale first, but successful changes tend to be adopted by large numbers of people, and often their macro impact is even more interesting than the small scale one. Some changes (e.g. the development of online auctions) are acutely dependent on the macro effects coming to pass. Others are less dependent on what economists call network effects. The really interesting changes are the ones where unexpected macro effects occur: these are called emergent phenomena, and are a major focus for computer scientists and sociologists.
Some unexpected consequences are positive, some negative. Either can lead to new ideas: as solutions to problems, or as exploitations of network effects.
Here are some examples from the lecture.
|
Idea |
Vision for change |
Social change |
Technical change |
Micro effects |
Macro effects |
Issues |
|
We should share documents more efficiently |
A way for information to be shared across the internet that is independent of host
systems and allows documents to cross-reference each other |
Appreciation that sharing and links are socially and professionally advantageous |
HTML, HTTP, URL, the WWW |
People can share documents |
There’s so much content! |
Finding what you need is difficult
How to know who to trust |
|
We need to communicate more efficiently |
Send messages electronically across the internet in a way that is independent of
host systems |
People accept email as a means of communication |
SMTP, email |
People can communicate using their computers |
Email replaces letters |
Spam, email overload |
|
We can’t find things easily now the Internet is so popular |
A tool that indexes all the content and makes it easy for people to locate what
they’re looking for |
Meta-tagging, linking to denote relevance |
Search engine algorithms |
People can find things |
Search engines become the most common entry point for most digital exploration |
Search engine gaming and spam |
The idea and the vision for change are inherently creative. The transition from micro effect to macro effect is often a creation in itself: a creation of the crowd.
An important facet of what Tim Berners-Lee calls web science is that it examines emergent web phenomena, attempts to help us understand how to exploit them, and how to mitigate the risks when changes are potentially harmful, for example where peer to peer networks make it easier to distribute illegal materials. If we can’t reliably predict what the macro effects of a change will be, we need ways to adapt when problems arise.
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